Canada's resale housing market recovered lost ground in the second quarter and is poised to stabilize for the remainder of 2009, after a very slow start to the year, according to a Market Survey Forecast and House Price Survey released today. As the economy begins to stabilize and consumer confidence improves, house prices are expected to appreciate slightly in much of eastern and central Canada. Greater than national average price declines are predicted for the western cities that saw the greatest price inflation earlier in the decade, including Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver.

During the second quarter, average house prices across most Canadian markets began to appreciate, recovering from the lows experienced during the winter months. Average national prices remain slightly behind those posted during the same period in 2008. Of the housing types surveyed, the price of detached bungalows declined to $327,964 (-3.5 per cent), two storey property prices decreased to $392,378 (-3.7 per cent), and standard condominiums price points fell slightly to $237,112 (-3.8 per cent), year-over-year.

The 2009 national average house price is forecast to decline marginally by 2.0 percent, to $297,500 by end of year and unit sales are projected to fall slightly by 1.0 percent to 430,000.

Improved affordability, driven by flat or lower home prices and inexpensive mortgage financing, has been the principle catalyst in this recovery. Pent up demand is also a factor in the lift we see in the second quarter numbers. For six months, buyers stayed away from the market - an emotional reaction to very unsettled global economic conditions. Canadians appear to be stepping beyond these fears and are once again moving onto and up the home ownership ladder.

In early 2009, the precipitous drop in unit sales remains the most dramatic indicator of the recession's impact on Canada's real estate market. With spring, consumers appeared ready to believe the worst was behind them and returned to the market in force, driving increased activity across each housing type. Couple this with historically low interest rates and leveling unemployment, Canada's residential real estate market got back on track during the quarter.

Undergoing an inevitable cyclical correction, price adjustments can be seen with marked variances across Canada's provinces. As expected, British Columbia and Alberta posted the most significant price modifications, as home values in those markets retreated in the wake of several mid-decade years of unsustainable price inflation, and have now evolved to a more balanced state. Prices appear to have stabilized and it is expected that these regions will continue to see improvements into 2010. In particular, the impact of lower home prices has improved affordability to the point that people are buying homes again on the West Coast, where sales activity has increased substantially.

In Toronto, the real estate market witnessed significant second quarter gains. The return of consumer confidence and an upswing in spring market activity saw buyers emerge to take advantage of affordable properties and low lending rates. As the market begins its transition from a buyer's market to a balanced market, with indications of a seller's market arising, it's anticipated that the market will stabilize by the end of year.

In June 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported a record 10,955 sales, up 27 per cent from June 2008. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in June was 100,700.

"The record result in June is testament to the fundamentally sound housing market in the GTA," said the Toronto Real Estate Board's newly appointed President Tom Lebour. "An increasing number of households have been confident in purchasing a home in the region's affordable and diverse resale housing market."

The average price for June transactions was $403,972 - up by two per cent compared to the same month last year. "The re-emergence of seller's market conditions has exerted upward pressure on home prices," explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Look for sales to remain high relative to listings in the second half of the year. This will keep home prices growing."

Courtesy of the Toronto Real Estate Board